That's according to new analysis commissioned by Friends of the Earth, and published by climate scientists at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester.
With a weak economic case to support expansion set against a huge impact on climate, nature and communities, it’s time to say no to a third runway at Heathrow.
UK airport expansion — climate research findings
The Tyndall Centre research reveals that:
- Recent approvals of airport expansion at Gatwick, Luton and many other locations would produce emissions far exceeding targets — by about 40%. That’s before Heathrow expansion is even considered.
- New technologies the government says can make flying green — sustainable aviation fuels and greenhouse gas removals — don't outweigh the environmental cost of expansion.
- The government is ignoring the impact of non-CO2 pollution. In addition to warming caused by carbon emissions, global heating from airplane contrails increases the negative impact from flying by another two- or three-fold.
- There’s no scenario where a new third runway can be in line with the emissions cuts needed to stay within the UK’s carbon budgets. Building a third runway would effectively signal the government had abandoned hope of meeting the UK’s climate obligations.
The government has a choice – commit to taking action on the climate seriously, reject Heathrow expansion and constrain excessive flying. Or abandon the UK's climate targets and future generations by giving the third runway the go-ahead.
Mike Childs, Climate Policy expert, Friends of the Earth
Aviation growth based on wishful thinking
To be compatible with taking climate change seriously, the government’s support relies on massive deployment of new technologies to enable Heathrow expansion.
In reality, the report’s modelling found this was wishful thinking. Neither sustainable aviation fuels, nor greenhouse gas removals technology, could be scaled up enough to eliminate the harmful impacts from flying.
Sustainable aviation fuels
These fuels are made of waste materials like cooking oils. Even optimistic scaling up of this technology would leave aviation emissions far too high. The government’s projections rely heavily on imports, which are unlikely to be available, or the use of up to two-thirds of UK agricultural land to produce fuel, which we need instead for food production.
Greenhouse gas removal
This technology captures carbon dioxide and stores it underground. Global deployment of greenhouse gas removal is significantly off track, incredibly expensive and no engineered removal plants are operating in the UK.
How is Friends of the Earth campaigning on Heathrow?
As an environmental justice organisation, Friends of the Earth has campaigned for years against Heathrow's planned third runway. The solutions to protecting the climate go hand in hand with protecting people.
For example, curbing excess flying with a frequent flyer levy (just 3% of people account for 30% of all flights made by UK residents) can reduce air pollution and noise, as well as cutting carbon emissions.
Now, we’re urging the UK government to reject Heathrow’s expansion and ensure future aviation policy remains consistent with the legally binding carbon budgets of the Climate Change Act.
Our campaign experts have submitted a response to the government's recent Heathrow Expansion National Policy Statement consultation. And we got 12,000 supporters to send their own responses.
Later this year, the government will decide whether to stick with its position of supporting Heathrow expansion. We’ll continue to keep pushing it to see sense, and say no.
