Extreme heat: Lack of climate protections leaving at least 6 million lives at risk in England
• Older people and young children are among the most high-risk groups for heatwaves – there are 1.7 million under 5s and 4.3 million older people living in the most heat-vulnerable neighbourhoods in England
• The true figure is likely to be significantly higher when health conditions exacerbated by extreme heat, and other high-risk groups such as disabled people, are considered
• The new government must strengthen plans it has inherited from the Conservatives for adapting to climate change, which are the subject of a legal challenge at the High Court next week (Tues 23 – Weds 24 July)
The UK’s woeful plans for adapting to climate change, which will be challenged in the High Court in a matter of days, are dangerously inadequate – with extreme heat alone threatening the health and lives of at least six million people in England, new data analysis from the environmental justice group Friends of the Earth has found.
The new estimate finds that 1.7 million under 5s and 4.3 million older people live in some of the most heat-vulnerable areas of the country. These are two of the most susceptible groups to the impacts of extreme heat.
However, Friends of the Earth data analysts say that this is a highly conservative estimate, with the true number likely to be much higher. While older people and young children make up the majority of people at risk, it does not factor in those across all age ranges who are living with health conditions that can be exacerbated by warmer temperatures. This includes disabled people who are disproportionately threatened by climate breakdown.
Friends of the Earth can reveal that across the areas identified as high-risk for heatwaves*, there are:
• 3.7 million people living with high blood pressure
• 700,000 people living with heart disease
• 1.5 million people living with asthma
• 400,000 people living with respiratory diseases
• 1.6 million people living with diabetes
#All of these are serious health conditions that are exacerbated by extreme heat, which in some cases could be life-threatening.
But due to the way government data is recorded, it is difficult to put a reliable figure on the total number of people impacted. This is because data is categorised by health condition and does not indicate where people are affected by more than one, meaning that they may be represented across data sets more than once.
The new analysis, published on the second anniversary of the UK’s highest ever temperature record where the mercury topped 40 degrees for the first time, builds on previous research by the University of Manchester and Friends of the Earth which identified 15,662 neighbourhoods threatened by extreme heat. Heat-vulnerable neighbourhoods are defined as those exposed to prolonged periods of very hot weather – an average of 27.5 degrees Celsius or higher for five days or more – as global temperatures exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius. There are 28 million people living within these areas.
According to the new analysis, other conditions which are made worse by warmer temperatures include kidney disease, of which there are 800,000 people living with the condition in high-risk areas, and rheumatoid arthritis, affecting 200,000 people across heat-vulnerable neighbourhoods.
Heat is also recognised to have a negative impact on mental health conditions. 2.6 million people have been identified as being diagnosed with depression across these areas.
At a High Court hearing next week, Friends of the Earth, alongside two co-claimants whose lives are already severely impacted by the climate crisis, will challenge the UK’s climate adaptation plans – known as the National Adaptation Programme (NAP). The group argues that the NAP, which was brought in by the previous government, does not sufficiently protect people, property and infrastructure from the foreseeable impacts of climate change.
The green group is calling on the new Labour government to come up with a much stronger plan to ensure that the UK is suitably prepared for the effects of climate change that can’t now be prevented, and those most at risk from escalating weather extremes are adequately protected.
Doug Paulley, disability rights activist and co-claimant in the case, said:
“The disproportionate impacts that are already being felt by disabled people, and will continue to in the future without better plans for adapting to climate change, are a stain on the UK and show just how far we’ve still to go to ensure disabled lives are taken seriously and treated with the respect they deserve.
“As someone who really struggles to regulate their body temperature due to health reasons, heatwaves like the one we had in 2022 mean I have to keep all of the curtains, windows and doors shut, and constantly cool my home with air conditioning just to get through. It becomes really isolating because I can’t go and visit anyone else in my care home, let alone the outside world. It’s not lost on me that disabled people were similarly cut off during the pandemic, too.
“But it’s not just how the UK responds to warmer temperatures that is putting lives at risk. Plans for how we respond to floods and other weather extremes must be designed with disabled people, and other at-risk groups, in mind, to ensure no one gets left behind as the climate crisis accelerates.”
Mike Childs, head of science, policy and research at Friends of the Earth, said:
“Global temperature records are being broken year on year, but the UK’s plans to adapt to the climate crisis are falling far short of what’s needed to protect frontline communities. This failure is putting the lives and health of millions of people at risk.
“While the new government has already made a positive start when it comes to climate action, for example by lifting the ban on onshore wind, we also need them to rapidly upgrade the country’s adaptation plans.
“This must include rolling out insulation programmes to keep our homes, care homes, schools and nurseries cool in summer, as well as warm in winter, planting street trees to help cool neighbourhoods during hot spells, and equipping community spaces such as libraries with air conditioning so people can shelter during heatwaves.”
ENDS
Notes to editors:
*In 2022, Friends of the Earth commissioned researchers at the University of Manchester to identify which neighbourhoods are most likely to be exposed to periods of very hot weather as global temperatures increase. They identified 15,622 neighbourhoods, which are home to 28 million people, for a global temperature increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius. The research aimed to help identify which areas most need help to prepare for heatwaves and to recover afterwards. A total of 182 local authority areas out of 309 are impacted, with these mostly in the South, South-East and Midlands. The top five local authorities with the most ‘at risk’ neighbourhoods are Birmingham, Buckinghamshire, Wiltshire, Bristol and West Northamptonshire. A full list of all the areas most affected is available here.
Methodology: Friends of the Earth’s latest analysis involves combining two sets of data. Firstly, data that identifies the neighbourhoods that will be exposed to periods of very hot weather when the planet has warmed by 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. See details above. Secondly, within these neighbours using health data to identify the numbers of people who are most at risk from periods of very hot weather due to their health condition and demographic data to identify the numbers of older people or very young people, as these ages are particularly susceptible to hot weather. There are also others at risk within these neighbourhoods that we can’t readily identify numbers for, for example, pregnant women.
A Friends of the Earth legal briefing about its legal challenge in the High Court next week on the UK’s climate adaptation plans, known as the National Adaptation Programme (NAP), is available here: https://friendsoftheearth.uk/climate/our-legal-challenge-national-adaptation-plan
Friends of the Earth and the other claimants, argue that the current plan (NAP3) is unlawful on the grounds that it breaches the Climate Change Act for failing to set out lawful ‘adaptation objectives’, and for failing to consider and publish an assessment of the risks to delivery of the plans and policies included.
The groundbreaking case, believed to be the first of its kind in the UK, also asks the court to rule that the deficiencies in the national plan breach the human rights of the co-claimants by failing to protect their lives, homes and property from foreseeable impacts of the climate crisis.